Pre-Market Global Review - 10/4/13 - Jobs Friday?

Good Morning Traders,
 
 


As of this writing 4:50 AM EST, here’s what we see:
 
US Dollar –Up at 79.900, the Dec US Dollar is up 54 ticks and is trading at 70.900.             
Energies – November Oil is up at 103.58.       
Financials – The December 30 year bond is down 6 ticks and is trading at 133.08.      
Indices – The December S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1672.75 and is up 12 ticks.  
Gold – The October gold contract is trading down at 1316.60 and is down 10 ticks from its close.
 
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is up+ and oil is up+  which is not normal but the 30 year bond is trading lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa.  The indices are up and the US dollar is trading higher which is not correlated.  Gold is trading lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading up.   I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down.   I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong.  As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.             
Asia closed mainly lower with the exception of the Shanghai and Sensex exchanges which closed higher. As of this writing all of Europe is trading mixed. 
 
  Possible challenges to traders today is the following:
                                                
1.  Lack of Non-Farm Payrolls Report.       
2.  FOMC Member Dudley speaks at 9:15 AM EST.  This is major.     
3.  FOMC Member Stern speaks at 9:30 AM EST.  This is major.    
 
     Currencies  
Yesterday the Swiss Franc made it's move at around 9:35 AM EST after the economic news was released.  This was a long opportunity as the USD hit a high at around that time and proceeded to drop,  the Swiss Franc gained ground and rose at the around the same time.  The key to capitalizing on these trades is to watch the USD movement.  The USD rising only lent confirmation to the move.  As a trader you could have netted 20 ticks on this trade.  And you thought markets weren't correlated?  And this is with a government shutdown which means these rules will work regardless of what else is going on....

Chart Courtesy of Trend Following Trades

USD 10/3/13

Bias

Yesterday we said our bias was neutral as the futures weren't giving any clue as to direction.  Given that the government shutdown is still in effect, the Dow dropped 137 points and breached the 15,000 level.  The other indices fell as well.  Today we are not dealing a correlated market and therefore must reiterate a neutral bias.  Why?  The market is not showing its hand in terms of direction, rather it appears to be trend-less and not certain of its own direction.  This plus the lack of a Jobs Report could move the markets in any direction.      Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
 

Ordinarily on Jobs Friday I would state that my bias is neutral as the markets don't behave with any sense of normalcy on this day.  However as of late and due to the government who can say what is normal?  We won't be getting any Non-Farm Payroll data today due to the shutdown.  In fact the Bureau of Labor Statistics has this notice on their website:

Special Notice:

This website is currently not being updated due to the suspension of Federal government services. The last update to the site was Monday, September 30. During the shutdown period BLS will not collect data, issue reports, or respond to public inquiries. Updates to the site will start again when the Federal government resumes operations. Revised schedules will be issued as they become available.

This is verbatim from their site, so I suppose we'll just have to guess what the data is?  How long do these elected officials think the markets will tolerate or be able to operate without up to date information?   Want proof?  Look at what happened yesterday.  The Dow drops 137 points and breached the all important 15,000 level.  Each time this year whenever that happened it was looked upon as major as 15,000 is considered support for the Dow.  The other indices didn't fare too well either.  So I guess we'll have to treat this as a "normal" trading day.....

Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation.  Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did  as I'm Author of that article.  I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at: 


http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/01/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation

As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I've produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it.  It can be viewed at:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/16/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation?ref=hp


 
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities.   While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report.  A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance.  Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares.  This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures.  There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
 
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral.  Could this change?  Of course.  In a volatile market anything can happen.  We'll have to monitor and see.
  
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades.  John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades.  John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders.  To download the article I've written,  go to: http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
 
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future.  Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.



As I write this the crude markets are trading higher and the US Dollar is advancing.  This is not normal.  Think of it this way.  If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa.  Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding.  The barometer of which is the equities or stock market.  If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday November crude dropped to a low of 102.90 a barrel and held.  We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level.   It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $102.32 a barrel and resistance at 105.04.  This could change.  All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see.  Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. 

Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling - ongoing.      
 


Crude oil is trading higher and the US Dollar is advancing.  This is not normal.  Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes.  If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right.  If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction.  As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market.  This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial.  We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago.  High Frequency Trading is one of them.   I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.

Recently Published Articles:  
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/12650453/are-the-markets-rewarding-poor-performance


http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/164874-trader-tips-the-case-for-fundamental-analysis/



Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us.  Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow.  Sceeto does an excellent job at this.  To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate.  More on this in subsequent editions.
 






Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com  Interested in Market Correlation?  Want to learn more?  Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open.  As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.