Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 5:10 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Up at 79.810, the Dec US Dollar is up 59 ticks and is trading at 79.810.
Energies – December Oil is down at 99.39.
Financials – The December 30 year bond is up 5 ticks and is trading at 133.28.
Indices – The December S&P 500 emini ES contract is down at 1737.75 and is down 2 ticks.
Gold – The December gold contract is trading down at 1311.12 and is down 46 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is a correlated market, unfortunately it is correlated to the downside. The dollar is up+ and oil is down- which is normal and the 30 year bond is trading higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are down and the US dollar is trading higher which is correlated. Gold is trading lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia closed closed mixed with about half the exchanges trading lower and the other half higher. As of this writing Europe is trading lower with the exception of the London exchange which is trading higher.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following:
1. Non-Farm Payrolls are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
2. Unemployment Rate is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
3. Average Hourly Earnings are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
4. TIC Long Term Purchases are out at 9 AM EST. This is not major.
5. Construction Spending is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
6. Richmond Manufacturing Index is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
7. Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This can move the Nat Gas market.
Yesterday the Swiss Franc made it's move at around 9:10 AM EST. This was a long opportunity as the USD hit a high at around that time and proceeded to drop, the Swiss Franc rose at the around the same time. The key to capitalizing on these trades is to watch the USD movement. The USD dropping only lent confirmation to the move. As a trader you could have netted 20-30 ticks on this trade. And you thought markets weren't correlated?
|Chart Courtesy of Trend Following Trades|
|USD - 12/13 - 10/21/13|
Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside as the USD and Financials were trading higher which isn't positive for the markets. The Dow closed 8 points lower and the Nasdaq and S&P closed fractionally higher. Today we are dealing with a correlated market however it is correlated to the downside. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Now that the government is reopened we'll start to see the tsunami of economic reports that couldn't be announced during the shutdown. It will start today with the Non-Farm Payroll numbers due out at 8:30 AM EST. I would however take this with a grain of salt as the reports will be dated as will many other economic reports. For me, I would take this as an ordinary day. One important aspect of note is that the front month contract for crude is now December and yesterday it dropped to below $100 a barrel. We haven't seen that in quite some time (July) but be aware that anytime crude trades above $100 a barrel we are at risk that it might drop below that level. Remember that we are not in peak driving season any longer so accept it as a normal trend for this time of year. Rest assured however that next year we'll see the same situation whereby it pops above $100 a barrel.
Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation. Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did as I'm Author of that article. I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at:
As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I've produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it. It can be viewed at:
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the downside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to: http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday December crude dropped to a low of 99.41 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $98.94 a barrel and resistance at 100.62. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
- Budget Battle - Forthcoming.
Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
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Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com Interested in Market Correlation? Want to learn more? Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open. As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.