As of this writing 5:10 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Down at 81.975, the Sept US Dollar is down 38 ticks and is trading at 81.975.
Energies – October Oil is down at 107.79.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is down 8 ticks and is trading at 132.28
Indices – The September S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1638.00 and is up 5 ticks.
Gold – The October gold contract is trading down at 1395.9 and is down 167 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and oil is down- which is not normal and the 30 year bond is trading lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are up and the US dollar is trading higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia closed mixed with half the exchanges closing lower and the other half closing higher. As of this writing all of Europe is trading lower.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. Core PCE Price Index m/m is out at 8:30 AM. This is major.
2. Personal Spending m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
3. Personal Income m/m at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
4. FOMC Member Bullard speaks at 9 AM EST. This is major.
5. Chicago PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST. This is major.
6. Revised UOM Consumer Sentiment is out at 9:55 AM EST. This is not major.
7. Revised UOM Inflation Expectations is out at 9:55 AM EST. This is not major.
Currencies Yesterday the Swiss Franc made it's move at around 9 AM after the economic news was reported. Interestingly enough if you follow what we teach in terms of Market Correlation and compare the Swiss Franc to the USD, you would notice that at around 9 AM the USD had held at that level and did not sell off. The Swiss Franc on the hand dropped at around that same time proving correlation. As a trader you could have netted 20 ticks on this trade. Notice that the USD dropped to a low of 81.935 but went no further. It stayed at that level and this would suggest support. On the other hand the Swiss Franc dropped.
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| Chart Courtesy of Trend Following Trades |
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| USD 8/29/13 |
Yesterday we said our bias was neutral as we felt the markets could go in any direction. Well Mr. Market decided to go higher as the Dow gained 16 points and the other indices gained as well. Today we are not dealing with a correlated market and our bias is neutral. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Well it's the end of August (finally) and I never thought I would ever see a more volatile month. We started off with taper talk and ended up with a potential conflict in the Middle East. Who knows what September will bring? One thing I can say based upon years of watching the markets; we can probably expect a busy, hectic morning today followed by a dull, lackluster afternoon. My take is today's session will be busy till around lunchtime and then activity and volume will probably dry up. One thing is for certain, September won't be dull either and historically September is supposed to be the dullest month of the year trading wise. We have the Battle of the Budgets looming and we still aren't certain what's going to happen with Syria. Hopefully the matter will be resolved sooner rather than later as the US has enough challenges to deal with but as in all things time will tell....
Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation. Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did as I'm Author of that article. I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at:
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/01/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation
As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I've produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it. It can be viewed at:
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/16/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation?ref=hp
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s0e8e37fe5944fc79
My discussion with John can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is declining. This is not normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday October crude dropped to a low of 107.72 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $107.20 a barrel and resistance at 109.01. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the September time frame.
- Asian Contagion - happening now
Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is declining. This is not normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10598425/when-perception-becomes-reality
http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-sitzkrieg-jobs-report/
http://www.forexcrunch.com/leadership-or-lack-thereof-part-ii/
http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com Interested in Market Correlation? Want to learn more? Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open. As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.
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