Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Pre-Market Global Review - 2/6/13 - Obama Signs Debt Ceiling Bill


This newsletter provides free market direction trading insights that are derived from our seasoned and unique, inter-market analysis.  We hope that this information will provide both the novice and seasoned trader with valuable assistance.  Our approach is to harvest clues clues from the Market's “tea leaves” as to what the market is doing or is likely to do.  

February 6, 2013
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 5:00 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Up at 79.770 The US Dollar is up 232 ticks and is trading at 79.770.  
Energies – March Oil is down at 96.23.
Financials – The 30 year bond is up 7 ticks and is trading at 142.31.
Indices – The March S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1509.00 even and is up 12 ticks.
Gold – The April gold contract is trading down at 1671.50 and is down 20 ticks.

This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is up+ and oil is down-  which is normal and the 30 year bond is trading up which correlates with the US dollar trading up.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa.   The indices are up but the US dollar is trading higher.  Gold is trading down which correlates with the US dollar trading higher.   I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down.   I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong.  As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. 

With the exception of the Indian Sensex index the rest of Asia closing higher.   As of this writing all of Europe is trading higher. 

  Possible challenges to traders today is the following:

-  Crude Inventories are out at 10:30 AM EST.   This will move the oil markets.
-  No major economic news to speak of.
-  Lack of economic news.

Yesterday we said our bias was to the long side with the net result being that the Dow closed 99 points higher.  As such the Dow regained the 14,000 mark, if only briefly.  It would seem to me that 14,000 is the resistance point for the Dow, although we'll have to measure this in the sessions to come.  I usually look at 3 days of history before making that call.  But it only goes to show you that anything can happen in a volatile market.  Today market correlation is calling for a lower open and our bias is toward the short side.   Here's why.  With the exception of the Sensex Index (which closed lower), the rest of Asia closed higher as a follow thru to what happened yesterday to the US markets.  As of this writing all of Europe is trading higher.  The missing ingredient are the Indices.  If the indices were trading lower I would say this is completely correlated market (to the downside).   The USD has been trading higher all morning and I wouldn't underestimate the power of the USD to drive markets.  The question is if whether or not the Smart Money decide to take money off the table.  Additionally yesterday the Dow did exceed the 14,000 mark but it didn't hold.  In other words it didn't go to a higher high and stay there.  I don't think the Smart Money is thru taking money off the table.  Bottom line, this is an uncorrelated market.  Could this change?  Of course.   Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Yesterday Non-Manufacturing PMI came in as expected and apparently it was enough to drive the markets higher.  We said our bias was towards the long side because the USD was losing value and was only 7 ticks away from its previous close.  Today we have a different situation.  The USD is stronger, the Bonds are up and Gold is lower.  The missing ingredient are the indices so we may see the situation where the markets open higher iniatially but as the day wears on, it might fall.  The great thing about market correlation is that it gives you a clue as to what to look forward to.  Additionally we have no major economic news to speak of, so there's nothing to drive the markets higher.

On the political front it appears as though President Obama has decided to sign the debt ceiling extension that both House of Representatives and Senate passed last week.  The caveat here is that Congress must approve a blueprint for the budget by April 15th or they will forfeit their pay.  This I have to see.  Whereas the debt ceiling talks have been put off until May 19th, sequester spending cuts will occur in the early March time frame, as scheduled.  It will be interesting to see how DC will react to this.  In all likelihood they'll probably put it off until the debt ceiling issue comes into play but we'll have to see.  At some point this month, this will be revisited as Congress must come to some decision prior to March 1st.  March 1st marks the day that automatic spending cuts come into play and the DC folks have to decide what they're going to do about it.  If you're wondering what this has to do with markets; I would say to you everything.  Look at what happened during the recent fiscal cliff crisis.  If you're wondering why we haven't had correlated markets since the election, look no further.  The markets do not like uncertainty when it comes to fiscal issues and anything that reeks of uncertainty is not viewed in a positive light.  Will the markets survive? of course.  It would seem to me that President Obama has elected to give the GOP something they wanted and to buy time for Congress to decide how to proceed.  This is the thing with politics in recent years.  They don't do anything until they have to.  In other words, they aren't proactive.  We're now hearing that Eric Cantor, Karl Rove and their gang is attempting to reinvent the GOP.  They're looking to divorce themselves from the Tea Party.  They must think the American people have a dim memory.  Since when does a pledge to an individual (Grover Norquist) outweigh an oath of office to the Constitution and the American People?  The American People re-elected this President because they didn't like what they saw on the far right.  

As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities.   While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report.  A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance.  Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares.  This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures.  There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.

Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution..    Today market correlation is calling for a lower open and our bias is towards the short side.  Could this change?  Of course.  In a volatile market anything can happen.  We'll have to monitor and see.  For awhile now we've promised a video on how a trader can use Market Correlation in tandem with their daily trading.  A good friend of Market Tea Leaves: Carl Weiss of Sceeto and I produced a video on December 22nd that shows this.  Here it is:

Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future.  Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
Here's a video on how a trader can use market correlation to short Crude:


 As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing.  This is  normal.  Think of it this way.  If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa.  Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding.  The barometer of which is the equities or stock market.  If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday's crude number exceeded the 97.00 a barrel mark.   So it would seem that at the present time crude's support is at 92.00 with resistance at 98.00 a barrel.  This could change.  All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see.  Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. 

Future Challenges:

 - Sequester spending cuts to commence around early March
 - Debt Ceiling in the May time frame.

Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing.  This is normal.  Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes.  If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right.  If you feel compelled to trade, consider doing so after 10:30 AM EST when the inventory numbers are released and the markets give us better direction.  As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market.  This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial.  We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago.  High Frequency Trading is one of them.   I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.  

Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us.  Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow.  Sceeto does an excellent job at this.  To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate.  More on this in subsequent blogs.

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