Pre-Market Global Review - 10/11/13 - Obama Rejects GOP Reprieve

Good Morning Traders,
 
As of this writing 4:45 AM EST, here’s what we see:
 
US Dollar –Down at 80.425, the Dec US Dollar is down 92 ticks and is trading at 80.425.             
Energies – November Oil is down at 102.16.       
Financials – The December 30 year bond is up 8 ticks and is trading at 132.29      
Indices – The December S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1685.25 and is up 1 tick.  
Gold – The December gold contract is trading down at 1289.20 and is down 77 ticks from its close.
 
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and oil is down-  which is not normal but the 30 year bond is trading higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa.  The indices are up and the US dollar is trading lower which is correlated.  Gold is trading lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading down.   I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down.   I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong.  As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.  
               
All of Asia closed higher. As of this writing all of Europe is trading higher. 
 
  Possible challenges to traders today is the following:
                                                
1.  Preliminary UOM Consumer Sentiment is out at 9:55 EST.  This is major.       
2.  Preliminary UOM Inflation Expectations is out at 9:55 AM EST.  This is major.    
3.  FOMC Member Powell speaks at 11 AM EST.  This is major.
 
     Currencies  
Yesterday the Swiss Franc made it's move at around 8:30 AM EST after the Unemployment Claims numbers were released.  This was a shorting opportunity as the USD hit a low at around that time and proceeded to rise,  the Swiss Franc dropped at the around the same time.  The key to capitalizing on these trades is to watch the USD movement.  The USD dropping only lent confirmation to the move.  As a trader you could have netted 20-30 ticks on this trade.  And you thought markets weren't correlated?  And this is with a government shutdown which means these rules will work regardless of what else is going on....

Chart Courtesy of Trend Following Trades

USD - 12/13 - 10/10/13

Bias


Yesterday we said our bias was to the upside as the Bonds were trading lower, Crude was trading higher and Europe was trading higher.  The net result being that the Dow rose by 323 points and the other indices gained ground as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is neutral.  Why?  The markets aren't giving any clues as to direction at this time; hence it could go in any direction today.     Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

 

Yesterday we heard that the GOP offered a six week reprieve on the debt ceiling such that the US government can pay its bills and debts.  The government would still be shutdown but at the very least this would insure that any debt obligations on behalf of the US government would be paid and therefore no default will occur.  Unlike 2011 we wouldn't have to be concerned about a downgrade of US government bonds or debt obligations.  Whereas this is a positive sign and certainly the markets took it that way yesterday, President Obama and the Dems have to agree to it.  My take is that they will as there isn't any other offer on the table.  The GOP on the other hand want to open up talks on budget cuts.  The question is will they be adamant about defunding ObamaCare?  This is yet to be seen as they certainly can't think that this president or the Dems will allow it.  The bigger question is why does the US government have to go thru this six weeks later?  It seems that each time we go thru this it becomes a reprieve for a smaller time frame.  Last December we had to deal with the fiscal cliff which nearly shutdown the government on January 1st.  But at least that lasted until September 30th.  Now we only 6 weeks to determine what the debt ceiling should be and we haven't even come up with a budget for 2014.  In fact we haven't come up with budget in years because no one can determine what that is.  The GOP is talking about budget cuts yet this economy is still dealing with sequester issues from March and now the Republicans want more.  This is a surefire way to choke an already tepid recovery.  This economy at this point hasn't rebounded anyway near to what it should or could be based upon previous recoveries.  By rights this economy should be growing by 5% plus a year; yet it is less than 3% annually.  Does anyone wonder why the Fed didn't taper?  They knew this could be an issue and didn't want to do anything to damage an already fragile economy.  I suspect that if this does in fact come to fruition, the Fed won't consider a taper until 2014 at the earliest.....  


It is Thursday night as I write this and President Obama has rejected the GOP plan as it would keep the government shutdown and I think he knows that 6 weeks from now we'll be right where we are today.  Six weeks from now we'll right in the middle of the Holiday Season and the American people want finality to this issue.  The good news is at least they're talking, so the Dems seem open to suggestion.  Prolonging another 6 weeks would only serve as fodder for the GOP as they will no doubt attempt blame the President and Dems for this.....
 
Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation.  Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did  as I'm Author of that article.  I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at: 


http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/01/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation

As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I've produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it.  It can be viewed at:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/16/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation?ref=hp


 
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities.   While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report.  A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance.  Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares.  This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures.  There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
 
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral.  Could this change?  Of course.  In a volatile market anything can happen.  We'll have to monitor and see.
  
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades.  John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades.  John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders.  To download the article I've written,  go to: http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
 
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future.  Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.



As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is declining.  This is not normal.  Think of it this way.  If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa.  Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding.  The barometer of which is the equities or stock market.  If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday November crude dropped to a low of 101.19 a barrel and held.  We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level.   It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $102.03 a barrel and resistance at 104.14.  This could change.  All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see.  Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. 

Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling - ongoing.      
 


Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is declining.  This is not normal.  Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes.  If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right.  If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction.  As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market.  This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial.  We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago.  High Frequency Trading is one of them.   I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.

Recently Published Articles:  
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/12650453/are-the-markets-rewarding-poor-performance


http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/164874-trader-tips-the-case-for-fundamental-analysis/



Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us.  Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow.  Sceeto does an excellent job at this.  To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate.  More on this in subsequent editions.
 






Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com  Interested in Market Correlation?  Want to learn more?  Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open.  As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.