Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 5:05 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Up at 81.060, the US Dollar is up 58 ticks and is trading at 81.060. Energies – March Oil is down at 97.42
Financials – The March 30 year bond is up 5 ticks and trading at 133.06.
Indices – The March S&P 500 emini ES contract is up 25 ticks and trading at 1772.75.
Gold – The April gold contract is trading up at 1260.30 and is up 32 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is up+ and oil is down- which is normal and the 30 year bond is trading higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are higher and the US dollar is trading up which is not correlated. Gold is trading higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
All of Asia traded higher. As of this writing all of Europe is trading higher.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following:
1. Non-Farm Employment Change is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major. 2. Unemployment Rate is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
3. Average Hourly Earnings m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
4. Consumer Credit m/m is out at 3 PM EST. This could affect afternoon trading.
Currencies
Yesterday the Swiss Franc made it's move at around 9:20 AM EST after the Unemployment Claims number was released. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The USD rose at around that time and the Swiss Franc fell. This was a shorting opportunity on the Swiss Franc. The key to capitalizing on these trades is to watch the USD movement. The USD rise only lent confirmation to the move. As a trader you could have netted 20 ticks on this trade. To expand the chart, right click and open in a new window. Kindly view our special video to determine how to capitalize on these trades. http://youtu.be/lOxBMe09X3Q
Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades
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| Swiss Franc - 03/14 - 2/6/14 |
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| USD - 03/14 - 2/6/14 |
Bias
Yesterday we said our bias was to the upside as the Bonds were trading lower, crude and Gold were trading higher and Europe was trading higher. The Dow gained 189 points and the other indices gained as well. Today given that it is Jobs Friday our bias is neutral. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Yesterday we said our bias was to the upside as the markets were pointing in that direction and the market didn't disappoint. Improved numbers in terms of Unemployment Claims led the way as they came in at 331,000 versus 337,000 expected. This was the only report that exceeded expectation, all of the rest did not. Today given that it is Jobs Friday our bias is neutral. Any of my subscribers who've been with me for a while know that 2 days in the month, we'll maintain a neutral bias. One is the FOMC Meeting and the other is Jobs Friday. Why? The markets have shown any sense of normalcy on these days and could go in any direction. Hence the neutral bias. On another note and somewhat related the Senate did not pass an extension of Unemployment Benefits and this bill was shot down by one vote. Whoever that Senator was I hope they sleep well knowing that their vote could have helped 1.3 million people who need it. Many of whom have families to feed...
Each day in this newsletter we provide viewers a snapshot of the Swiss Franc versus the US dollar as a way and means of capitalizing on the inverse relationship between these two assets. Futures Magazine recognized this correlation as well. So much so that they printed a story on it in their December issue. That story can be viewed at:
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/11/25/correlated-opportunities-in-the-swiss-franc?ref=hpMany of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation. Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did as I'm Author of that article. I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at:
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/01/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation
As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I've produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it. It can be viewed at:
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/16/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation?ref=hp
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice-versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday March crude dropped to a low of 97.44 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $96.74 a barrel and resistance at $98.78. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Debt Ceiling - Well we could say it's official and that a "budget" has been passed by both houses of Congress but Obama still has yet to approve it. If approved this would fund the government until September 30th and remove an uncertainty from the markets. However Obama hasn't approved this yet and currently Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew has already testified before Congress warning that our current debt ceiling will expire on February 7th and that the Treasury could do something to extend until the end of February but won't be able to go much beyond that. Well the State of the Union come and gone yet to our knowledge Obama hasn't approved anything yet. He meets with Apple, Walmart and others to discuss joblessness yet he does absolutely nothing for the long term unemployed except to talk about it. Did anyone bother to tell that he could issue an Executive Order to extend? Yes, it may lead to absolutely nothing but at least the American people will know where he stands. His lack of leadership in this regard is deplorable...
Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com Interested in Market Correlation? Want to learn more? Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open. As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.
