As of this writing 5:50 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Up at 83.025 the US Dollar is up 150 ticks and is trading at 83.025.
Energies – June Oil is down at 95.69.
Financials – The June 30 year bond is down 24 ticks and is trading at 145.24.
Indices – The June S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1627.00 and is up 10 ticks.
Gold – The June gold contract is trading down at 1446.80 and is down 217 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and oil is down- which is not normal and the 30 year bond is trading lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are up and the US dollar is trading lower which is correlated. Gold is trading lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
With the exception of the Aussie exchange the rest of Asia closed higher. As of this writing all of Europe is trading higher.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. FOMC Member Evans speak at 8:25 AM EST. This is not major.
2. Chairman Bernanke speaks at 9:30 AM EST. This is major.
3. FOMC Member George speaks at 2 PM EST. This is not major.
4. Federal Balance Budget is out at 3 PM EST. This could affect afternoon trading.
Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside because the were down and Asia had closed to the downside and Europe was trading lower. The net result? The Dow closed flat and the NASDAQ and S&P closed lower as well. Today the markets aren't correlated but our bias is to the upside. Why? The Bonds and USD are trading lower which is bullish for the markets. Asia closed mainly higher and currently Europe is trading higher. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Yesterday Unemployment Claims was reported and came in at 323,000. No sooner did that occur when the headlines read "Lowest Unemployment Claims report since 2008" or another one that said "Sequester has no impact on Employment" Then a curious thing happened, at around 10:30 AM EST, the market fell, popped up around 1 PM and then fell again. Funny thing about Market Correlation, it generally works. Not all the time, mind you because anything can happen in the market; but at the end of the day it usually proves correct. We said that the markets weren't correlated and we didn't see anything that would prove otherwise. We also said in our Market Bias video that the Unemployment Claims would be a market mover and it was, for awhile. As far as the report itself is concerned, the Bureau of Labor Statistics never reveals how many of those individuals exhausted benefits and therefore aren't counted. We are now hearing that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are paying the US Treasury billions of dollars such that the Budget Battle won't be an issue until October. How are Fannie and Freddie going to pay this? Not from their own accounts or coffers but by selling bonds. So it's a situation of robbing Peter to pay Paul. Interesting. I have no doubt that the folks in DC will wait until the very last minute before deciding on a budget. Want proof? Think about what happened this past January with the Fiscal Cliff...
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the upside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
On Wednesday, May 1st I had the opportunity to interview Markus Heitkoetter. Markus is the CEO of Rockwell Trading and is living proof that anyone with the right mindset, desire and tenacity can be a successful trader. He offers a 296 page eBook that can be viewed on the Rockwell Trading website. It's entitled "The Complete Guide to Day Trading" I recall when Markus started Rockwell years ago and was always impressed with his focus on coaching and paying attention to detail. Once again our friends at TradersLog have agreed to publish the article and it can be viewed at:
http://www.traderslog.com/interview-with-markus-heitkoetter/
The video can be viewed at:
http://youtu.be/i-mIumI6ptU
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is declining. This is not normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday June crude dropped to a low of 95.35 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at 92.00 a barrel and resistance at 98. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the August time frame.
- European Contraction - happening now
Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is declining. This is not normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.forexcrunch.com/effects-of-sequestrationthus-far/
http://www.forexcrunch.com/obamacare-and-its-impact-on-the-us
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/9971005/german-factory-orders-up-us-down
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent blogs.
For previous issues feel free to visit our archives.
