Good Morning Traders,
As
of this writing 4:30 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Up at 82.120, the Sept US Dollar is up 80 ticks and is trading at 82.120.
Energies – September Oil is up at 107.36.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is down 12 ticks and is trading at 134.22.
Indices – The September S&P
500 emini ES contract is up at 1691.75 and is up 13 ticks.
Gold – The August
gold contract is trading up at 1340.80 and is up 60 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is up+ and
oil is up+- which is not normal and the 30 year bond is trading lower. The Financials should always correlate
with
the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow
and vice versa. The indices are up and the US dollar
is trading higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading higher which is not correlated with the
US
dollar trading up. I tend to believe
that Gold has an inverse
relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold
tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one
is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you
aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is
wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your
eyes wide open.
Asia closed mainly lower with the Hang Seng and Singapore trading higher . As
of this
writing Europe is trading higher.
Possible challenges to
traders today is the following
1. Flash Manufacturing Index is out at 9 AM EST. This is not major.
2. New Home Sales are out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
3. Crude Inventory is out at 10:30 AM EST. This will move the crude markets.
Yesterday we said our bias was to
the upside as both the USD and Bonds were trading lower. The
net
result? The Dow gained 22 points. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market however our bias is to the upside. Why? The Bonds are trading lower and Gold is trading higher additionally Europe is currently trading higher. Could
this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Yesterday our bias was to the upside and
the only economic news items we had were Home Price Index and Richmond Manufacturing. Whereas the HPI didn't meet expectations (0.7% vs 0.9% expected), it didn't dive into negative territory. That seems to be the trend now. If the expectation isn't hit but doesn't fall into negative territory, that's a win. One pundit claimed that home prices are now up to 2005 levels. If that's the case it certainly doesn't feel like it. Another thing I've noticed is that on both Monday and yesterday the market were in some way,shape or form correlated. Not 100 percent correlated but there were some aspects that were. Case-in-point on Monday we said the USD was down but the Bonds were trading higher; we also said that Gold was trading higher and correlated with the USD. Net result - gain. Yesterday we said the USD and Bonds were both trading lower, hence they are correlated. Net result - gain. Must be something to this market correlation stuff we keep talking about...
On Friday, June 7th I had the
opportunity to interview Mr. Sal Spedele regarding ObamaCare. Sal is a
20 year veteran of the Insurance Industry and we spoke at length
regarding the ramifications of the Patient Protection and Affordable
Care Act aka ObamaCare. If you are at all concerned about the future of
Health Insurance in the United States, then you need to listen to this
interview and act on it. Sal and his team is offering complimentary
advisory services to inform you of your rights and ramifications of this
Act.
As an update on this issue, last week
the White House extended the employer's mandate to 2015 versus 2014 and
currently the house will vote on a similar measure for individuals. The
question is can you trust the folks in DC to implement anything?
To download the article on ObamaCare, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s978a806ae2e41569
To view my discussion with Sal:
http://youtu.be/sR_ine0b5Ro
As
readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on
this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A
company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must
provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per
share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the
reasons I don't
trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with
futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals,
malfeasance, etc.
Anytime
the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't
right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the upside.
Could this change? Of course. In a
volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In
May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has
an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years
prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading
Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To
download the article I've written, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/sdf8f77f6e2c4347a
My discussion with John can be viewed at:
http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604
Please
note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing
more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have
other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As
I write this the crude markets are trading higher and the US
Dollar is advancing. This is not normal. Think of it this way. If the
stock
market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will
follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that
business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities
or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by
side you will notice this. Yesterday September crude dropped to a low of 105.46 a
barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see
if
crude
either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at
the present time that crude has support at $105.28 a barrel and resistance
at 109.38. This could change. All we
need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over
$100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is
the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the August time frame.
- Asian Contagion - happening now
Crude
oil is trading higher and the US Dollar is advancing. This is not normal.
Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the
course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when
the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time
frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest
that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade
consider doing so after 10:30 AM when the inventory numbers are released and the markets give us better
direction. As
always watch and monitor your
order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why
monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are
faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years
ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of
scalping however in a market as volatile as this
scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10598425/when-perception-becomes-reality
http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-taper-caper/
http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Remember
that without knowledge of order flow
we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money
will have
no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for
trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow.
Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on
this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the
various market
correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Pre-Market Global Review - Existing Home Sales Doesn't Deep Six Markets
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 5:00 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Down at 82.300, the Sept US Dollar is down 17 ticks and is trading at 82.300.
Energies – September Oil is down at 106.25.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is down 5 ticks and is trading at 135.11.
Indices – The September S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1693.25 and is up 12 ticks.
Gold – The August gold contract is trading down at 1331.30 and is down 51 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and oil is down- which is not normal and the 30 year bond is trading lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are up and the US dollar is trading lower which is correlated. Gold is trading lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
All of Asia closed higher with some exchanges higher by triple digits. As of this writing Europe is trading higher.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. Home Price Index is out at 9 AM EST. This is major.
2. Richmond Manufacturing Index is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
Yesterday we said our bias was to the upside as the USD was trading lower and Gold was much higher. The net result? The Dow gained 2 points and the other indices gained as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market however our bias is to the upside. Why? As of this writing the USD and Bonds are both trading lower which is bullish for the indices. Asia closed higher to the tune of triple digits and currently Europe is trading higher. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Yesterday our bias was to the upside and the only economic news item we had was Existing Home Sales. The actual number came in lower (5.08 million versus 5.27 million expected) and yet despite this the market closed fractionally higher. Hmm... must be something to this market correlation stuff... The markets traded in and out of positive territory all day but managed to close higher. One pundit is now saying that higher interest rates are causing a bump in the road for many buyers. Well what does anyone think will happen if all anyone talks about everyday is will the Fed taper? Ever since the last FOMC meeting the press has made an issue out of when will the Fed taper? We've gone from next year, to September, to year end back to next year and all since June 20th when the Fed held their press conference. In this market as volatile as it is perception becomes reality. How many times have you heard of news stories about a specific stock or event and then after that event happens, the stock or market drops off? This is nothing more than market manipulation at its finest. Now ask yourself question, who benefits when this occurs? Because it certainly isn't John Q. Public. The Smart Money however will benefit from it and they have the horsepower to do so. This is the reason why I urge folks not to trade when an impending news event is to be reported, it's also the reason why each day I'll quote news events or economic reports scheduled for that day. Look, the markets have been doing this for over 100 years now if you want proof read a book called The Game in Wall Street. That book was written in 1898 and guess what? They're still doing the same things.
On Friday, June 7th I had the opportunity to interview Mr. Sal Spedele regarding ObamaCare. Sal is a 20 year veteran of the Insurance Industry and we spoke at length regarding the ramifications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka ObamaCare. If you are at all concerned about the future of Health Insurance in the United States, then you need to listen to this interview and act on it. Sal and his team is offering complimentary advisory services to inform you of your rights and ramifications of this Act. As an update on this issue, last week the White House extended the employer's mandate to 2015 versus 2014 and currently the house will vote on a similar measure for individuals. The question is can you trust the folks in DC to implement anything? To download the article on ObamaCare, go to: https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s978a806ae2e41569
To view my discussion with Sal: http://youtu.be/sR_ine0b5Ro
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the upside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/sdf8f77f6e2c4347a
My discussion with John can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is declining. This is not normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday September crude dropped to a low of 106.48 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $106 a barrel and resistance at 109. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the August time frame.
- Asian Contagion - happening now
Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is declining. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10598425/when-perception-becomes-reality
http://www.forexcrunch.com/good-jobs-report/
http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-taper-caper/
http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
As of this writing 5:00 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Down at 82.300, the Sept US Dollar is down 17 ticks and is trading at 82.300.
Energies – September Oil is down at 106.25.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is down 5 ticks and is trading at 135.11.
Indices – The September S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1693.25 and is up 12 ticks.
Gold – The August gold contract is trading down at 1331.30 and is down 51 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and oil is down- which is not normal and the 30 year bond is trading lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are up and the US dollar is trading lower which is correlated. Gold is trading lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
All of Asia closed higher with some exchanges higher by triple digits. As of this writing Europe is trading higher.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. Home Price Index is out at 9 AM EST. This is major.
2. Richmond Manufacturing Index is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
Yesterday we said our bias was to the upside as the USD was trading lower and Gold was much higher. The net result? The Dow gained 2 points and the other indices gained as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market however our bias is to the upside. Why? As of this writing the USD and Bonds are both trading lower which is bullish for the indices. Asia closed higher to the tune of triple digits and currently Europe is trading higher. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Yesterday our bias was to the upside and the only economic news item we had was Existing Home Sales. The actual number came in lower (5.08 million versus 5.27 million expected) and yet despite this the market closed fractionally higher. Hmm... must be something to this market correlation stuff... The markets traded in and out of positive territory all day but managed to close higher. One pundit is now saying that higher interest rates are causing a bump in the road for many buyers. Well what does anyone think will happen if all anyone talks about everyday is will the Fed taper? Ever since the last FOMC meeting the press has made an issue out of when will the Fed taper? We've gone from next year, to September, to year end back to next year and all since June 20th when the Fed held their press conference. In this market as volatile as it is perception becomes reality. How many times have you heard of news stories about a specific stock or event and then after that event happens, the stock or market drops off? This is nothing more than market manipulation at its finest. Now ask yourself question, who benefits when this occurs? Because it certainly isn't John Q. Public. The Smart Money however will benefit from it and they have the horsepower to do so. This is the reason why I urge folks not to trade when an impending news event is to be reported, it's also the reason why each day I'll quote news events or economic reports scheduled for that day. Look, the markets have been doing this for over 100 years now if you want proof read a book called The Game in Wall Street. That book was written in 1898 and guess what? They're still doing the same things.
On Friday, June 7th I had the opportunity to interview Mr. Sal Spedele regarding ObamaCare. Sal is a 20 year veteran of the Insurance Industry and we spoke at length regarding the ramifications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka ObamaCare. If you are at all concerned about the future of Health Insurance in the United States, then you need to listen to this interview and act on it. Sal and his team is offering complimentary advisory services to inform you of your rights and ramifications of this Act. As an update on this issue, last week the White House extended the employer's mandate to 2015 versus 2014 and currently the house will vote on a similar measure for individuals. The question is can you trust the folks in DC to implement anything? To download the article on ObamaCare, go to: https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s978a806ae2e41569
To view my discussion with Sal: http://youtu.be/sR_ine0b5Ro
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the upside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/sdf8f77f6e2c4347a
My discussion with John can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is declining. This is not normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday September crude dropped to a low of 106.48 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $106 a barrel and resistance at 109. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the August time frame.
- Asian Contagion - happening now
Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is declining. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10598425/when-perception-becomes-reality
http://www.forexcrunch.com/good-jobs-report/
http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-taper-caper/
http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Monday, July 22, 2013
Pre-Market Global Review - 7/22/13 - Motown is now "Notown"
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 5:20 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Down at 82.555, the Sept US Dollar is down 156 ticks and is trading at 82.555.
Energies – August Oil is up at 108.30.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is up 8 ticks and is trading at 135.24.
Indices – The September S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1691.25 and is up 8 ticks.
Gold – The August gold contract is trading up at 1315.10 and is up 222 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and oil is up+ which is normal but the 30 year bond is trading higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are up and the US dollar is trading lower which is correlated. Gold is trading higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
All of Asia closed higher except the Aussie which closed 1 point lower. As of this writing Europe is trading higher.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. Existing Home Sales are out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
2. Lack of any other Economic News.
On Friday we said our bias was to the downside as the markets weren't correlated, the Bonds indicated a bearish stance and we felt the Smart Money may be looking to take capital off the table as the markets had a week of gains. The net result? The Dow fell 5 points and the Nasdaq lost ground as well. Tod ay we aren't dealing with a correlated market due to the Bonds however our bias is to the upside. Why? Asia closed mainly higher and Europe is trading higher. Additionally the USD is lower and Gold is trading higher. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
On Friday we said our bias was to the downside as there was no economic news (major or otherwise) to propel the markets in any particular direction. This plus Fridays in the summer months aren't conducive to major market moves. Typically we find in summer traders are more likely to start the weekend off early. Then we discover that Detroit has filed bankruptcy. This was no surprise to anyone as Detroit has been suffering for a number of years now. Population has declined from over 2 million to now 700,000, rows and rows of vacant houses and with that reduced property tax revenues has caused Detroit to be "upside down" in terms of debt obligations. The same thing has occurred in other municipalities, to be sure but the difference between them and Detroit is they were able to refinance their debt and long term obligations. What I find to be a travesty of justice is their Governor apparently has no problem with this. This was the birthplace of the Auto Industry and should be the capital of Industrial America, yet apparently no one has a problem with this? I live in New Jersey aka Chris Chistieland. Now I'm not a fan of Chris Christie but I have to give him credit where it's due. During Hurricane Sandy he went against party lines and did the right thing for the people of his state. In January he bashed Speaker Boehner and the GOP in DC because they were too slow in providing aid. Believe me we applauded the effort. At the State level Governor Rich Snyder apparently wants Detroit to file bankruptcy so as to allow refinance of debt obligations or to seek Federal Aid. I don't think he's going to get Federal Aid as his fellow GOP'ers in DC won't allow it; they don't seem to have an issue starving the masses. Especially with the ongoing sequester; which will be a hotly debated subject next month during the Budget Battle. In the meantime the Administration that championed the Auto Bailout doesn't seem to be proactive in this regard. I guess they're more concerned about the "affordable" care act...
On Friday, June 7th I had the opportunity to interview Mr. Sal Spedele regarding ObamaCare. Sal is a 20 year veteran of the Insurance Industry and we spoke at length regarding the ramifications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka ObamaCare. If you are at all concerned about the future of Health Insurance in the United States, then you need to listen to this interview and act on it. Sal and his team is offering complimentary advisory services to inform you of your rights and ramifications of this Act. As an update on this issue, last week the White House extended the employer's mandate to 2015 versus 2014 and currently the house will vote on a similar measure for individuals. The question is can you trust the folks in DC to implement anything? To download the article on ObamaCare, go to: https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s978a806ae2e41569
To view my discussion with Sal: http://youtu.be/sR_ine0b5Ro
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the upside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/sdf8f77f6e2c4347a
My discussion with John can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading higher and the US Dollar is declining. This is normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. On Friday August crude dropped to a low of 106.91 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $106 a barrel and resistance at 109. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the August time frame.
- Asian Contagion - happening now
Crude oil is trading higher and the US Dollar is declining. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10598425/when-perception-becomes-reality
http://www.forexcrunch.com/good-jobs-report/
http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-taper-caper/
http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
As of this writing 5:20 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Down at 82.555, the Sept US Dollar is down 156 ticks and is trading at 82.555.
Energies – August Oil is up at 108.30.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is up 8 ticks and is trading at 135.24.
Indices – The September S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1691.25 and is up 8 ticks.
Gold – The August gold contract is trading up at 1315.10 and is up 222 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and oil is up+ which is normal but the 30 year bond is trading higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are up and the US dollar is trading lower which is correlated. Gold is trading higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
All of Asia closed higher except the Aussie which closed 1 point lower. As of this writing Europe is trading higher.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. Existing Home Sales are out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
2. Lack of any other Economic News.
On Friday we said our bias was to the downside as the markets weren't correlated, the Bonds indicated a bearish stance and we felt the Smart Money may be looking to take capital off the table as the markets had a week of gains. The net result? The Dow fell 5 points and the Nasdaq lost ground as well. Tod ay we aren't dealing with a correlated market due to the Bonds however our bias is to the upside. Why? Asia closed mainly higher and Europe is trading higher. Additionally the USD is lower and Gold is trading higher. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
On Friday we said our bias was to the downside as there was no economic news (major or otherwise) to propel the markets in any particular direction. This plus Fridays in the summer months aren't conducive to major market moves. Typically we find in summer traders are more likely to start the weekend off early. Then we discover that Detroit has filed bankruptcy. This was no surprise to anyone as Detroit has been suffering for a number of years now. Population has declined from over 2 million to now 700,000, rows and rows of vacant houses and with that reduced property tax revenues has caused Detroit to be "upside down" in terms of debt obligations. The same thing has occurred in other municipalities, to be sure but the difference between them and Detroit is they were able to refinance their debt and long term obligations. What I find to be a travesty of justice is their Governor apparently has no problem with this. This was the birthplace of the Auto Industry and should be the capital of Industrial America, yet apparently no one has a problem with this? I live in New Jersey aka Chris Chistieland. Now I'm not a fan of Chris Christie but I have to give him credit where it's due. During Hurricane Sandy he went against party lines and did the right thing for the people of his state. In January he bashed Speaker Boehner and the GOP in DC because they were too slow in providing aid. Believe me we applauded the effort. At the State level Governor Rich Snyder apparently wants Detroit to file bankruptcy so as to allow refinance of debt obligations or to seek Federal Aid. I don't think he's going to get Federal Aid as his fellow GOP'ers in DC won't allow it; they don't seem to have an issue starving the masses. Especially with the ongoing sequester; which will be a hotly debated subject next month during the Budget Battle. In the meantime the Administration that championed the Auto Bailout doesn't seem to be proactive in this regard. I guess they're more concerned about the "affordable" care act...
On Friday, June 7th I had the opportunity to interview Mr. Sal Spedele regarding ObamaCare. Sal is a 20 year veteran of the Insurance Industry and we spoke at length regarding the ramifications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka ObamaCare. If you are at all concerned about the future of Health Insurance in the United States, then you need to listen to this interview and act on it. Sal and his team is offering complimentary advisory services to inform you of your rights and ramifications of this Act. As an update on this issue, last week the White House extended the employer's mandate to 2015 versus 2014 and currently the house will vote on a similar measure for individuals. The question is can you trust the folks in DC to implement anything? To download the article on ObamaCare, go to: https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s978a806ae2e41569
To view my discussion with Sal: http://youtu.be/sR_ine0b5Ro
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the upside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/sdf8f77f6e2c4347a
My discussion with John can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading higher and the US Dollar is declining. This is normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. On Friday August crude dropped to a low of 106.91 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $106 a barrel and resistance at 109. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the August time frame.
- Asian Contagion - happening now
Crude oil is trading higher and the US Dollar is declining. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10598425/when-perception-becomes-reality
http://www.forexcrunch.com/good-jobs-report/
http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-taper-caper/
http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Friday, July 19, 2013
Pre-Market Global Review - 7/19/13 - Bernanke Buries the Bears, again...
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 5:20 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Down at 82.895, the Sept US Dollar is down 60 ticks and is trading at 82.895.
Energies – August Oil is down at 107.56.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is up 8 ticks and is trading at 134.29.
Indices – The September S&P 500 emini ES contract is down at 1678.00 and is down 10 ticks.
Gold – The August gold contract is trading up at 1286.70 and is up 25 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and oil is down- which is not normal and the 30 year bond is trading higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are down and the US dollar is trading lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia closed mainly lower with the exception of the Hang Seng and Indian Sensex which closed higher. As of this writing Europe is trading lower.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. No Major Economic News.
2. Lack of Major Economic News.
Yesterday we said our bias was neutral as we felt the markets could be driven in any direction. The net result being that the Dow gained 78 points and the other indices gained as well. Today we are not dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the downside. Why? The Bonds are trading higher and Europe is trading lower. Additionally there is no major economic news for the US markets to propel it higher, after new record highs on the Dow we think the Smart Money may want to take some capital off the table. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Yesterday we said our bias was neutral as the markets weren't correlated and with Ben Bernanke speaking we felt the markets could be driven in any direction. Unemployment Claims came in lower than expected and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came in much higher than expected (19.8 versus 8.5) both of which were very positive for the markets. Ben Bernanke didn't say anything other than what he's already said in the past so at least he's signing from the same hymn book. It appears as though the pundits are already stating that the Fed will taper "later in the year" meaning December and some have stated "early 2014". Bernanke's message essentially is "we will taper when we taper and not a moment too soon"; meaning we will do it when we do it and for a good reason. Bernanke also emphasized that the Fed may keep interest rates low even after the unemployment rate drops below 6.5% which I think the market needed to hear. The problem with all this tapering talk is that everyone is assuming that once the Fed tapers, they will increase the FFR (Federal Funds Rate or overnight rate, thereby increasing interest rates). I surmise that this was the underlying fear all along. Most people don't want higher interest rates and who can blame them? Time will tell how this all works out but for the time being Ben Bernanke just spent two days burying the bears....
On Friday, June 7th I had the opportunity to interview Mr. Sal Spedele regarding ObamaCare. Sal is a 20 year veteran of the Insurance Industry and we spoke at length regarding the ramifications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka ObamaCare. If you are at all concerned about the future of Health Insurance in the United States, then you need to listen to this interview and act on it. Sal and his team is offering complimentary advisory services to inform you of your rights and ramifications of this Act. As an update on this issue, last week the White House extended the employer's mandate to 2015 versus 2014 and currently the house will vote on a similar measure for individuals. The question is can you trust the folks in DC to implement anything? To download the article on ObamaCare, go to: https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s978a806ae2e41569
To view my discussion with Sal: http://youtu.be/sR_ine0b5Ro
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the downside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/sdf8f77f6e2c4347a
My discussion with John can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is declining. This is not normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday August crude dropped to a low of 106.15 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $106 a barrel and resistance at 109. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the August time frame.
- Asian Contagion - happening now
Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is declining. This is not normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10598425/when-perception-becomes-reality
http://www.forexcrunch.com/good-jobs-report/
http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-taper-caper/
http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
As of this writing 5:20 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Down at 82.895, the Sept US Dollar is down 60 ticks and is trading at 82.895.
Energies – August Oil is down at 107.56.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is up 8 ticks and is trading at 134.29.
Indices – The September S&P 500 emini ES contract is down at 1678.00 and is down 10 ticks.
Gold – The August gold contract is trading up at 1286.70 and is up 25 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and oil is down- which is not normal and the 30 year bond is trading higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are down and the US dollar is trading lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia closed mainly lower with the exception of the Hang Seng and Indian Sensex which closed higher. As of this writing Europe is trading lower.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. No Major Economic News.
2. Lack of Major Economic News.
Yesterday we said our bias was neutral as we felt the markets could be driven in any direction. The net result being that the Dow gained 78 points and the other indices gained as well. Today we are not dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the downside. Why? The Bonds are trading higher and Europe is trading lower. Additionally there is no major economic news for the US markets to propel it higher, after new record highs on the Dow we think the Smart Money may want to take some capital off the table. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Yesterday we said our bias was neutral as the markets weren't correlated and with Ben Bernanke speaking we felt the markets could be driven in any direction. Unemployment Claims came in lower than expected and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came in much higher than expected (19.8 versus 8.5) both of which were very positive for the markets. Ben Bernanke didn't say anything other than what he's already said in the past so at least he's signing from the same hymn book. It appears as though the pundits are already stating that the Fed will taper "later in the year" meaning December and some have stated "early 2014". Bernanke's message essentially is "we will taper when we taper and not a moment too soon"; meaning we will do it when we do it and for a good reason. Bernanke also emphasized that the Fed may keep interest rates low even after the unemployment rate drops below 6.5% which I think the market needed to hear. The problem with all this tapering talk is that everyone is assuming that once the Fed tapers, they will increase the FFR (Federal Funds Rate or overnight rate, thereby increasing interest rates). I surmise that this was the underlying fear all along. Most people don't want higher interest rates and who can blame them? Time will tell how this all works out but for the time being Ben Bernanke just spent two days burying the bears....
On Friday, June 7th I had the opportunity to interview Mr. Sal Spedele regarding ObamaCare. Sal is a 20 year veteran of the Insurance Industry and we spoke at length regarding the ramifications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka ObamaCare. If you are at all concerned about the future of Health Insurance in the United States, then you need to listen to this interview and act on it. Sal and his team is offering complimentary advisory services to inform you of your rights and ramifications of this Act. As an update on this issue, last week the White House extended the employer's mandate to 2015 versus 2014 and currently the house will vote on a similar measure for individuals. The question is can you trust the folks in DC to implement anything? To download the article on ObamaCare, go to: https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s978a806ae2e41569
To view my discussion with Sal: http://youtu.be/sR_ine0b5Ro
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the downside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/sdf8f77f6e2c4347a
My discussion with John can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is declining. This is not normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday August crude dropped to a low of 106.15 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $106 a barrel and resistance at 109. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the August time frame.
- Asian Contagion - happening now
Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is declining. This is not normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10598425/when-perception-becomes-reality
http://www.forexcrunch.com/good-jobs-report/
http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-taper-caper/
http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Pre-Market Global Review - 7/18/13 - Bernanke Buries the Bears
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 5:40 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Up at 82.915, the Sept US Dollar is up 75 ticks and is trading at 82.915.
Energies – August Oil is down at 106.05.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is up 3 ticks and is trading at 135.14.
Indices – The September S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1676.00 and is up 2 ticks.
Gold – The August gold contract is trading up at 1279.40 and is up 19 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is up+ and oil is down- which is normal and the 30 year bond is trading higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are up and the US dollar is trading higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia closed mixed with the half the exchanges closing lower and the other half higher. As of this writing Europe is trading higher with the exception of the German DAX which is fractionally lower.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. Unemployment Claims are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
2. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
3. Ben Bernanke speaks at 10 AM EST. This is major.
4. CB Conference Board is out at 10 AM EST. This is not major.
5. Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This will move the Nat Gas market.
Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside as Gold was lower, the USD was higher and Europe was trading lower. However the market migrated from positive to negative territory all day with the net result being that the Dow gained 19 points. Today we are not dealing with a correlated market and our bias is neutral as we think the market could be driven in any direction today. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside as the markets were correlated as such. Housing Starts, Permits came in much lower than expected but the big news of the day was of course Ben Bernanke testifying before Congress. He did say "tapering is not on a preset path" which in my mind is nothing more than what he's been saying since December, 2012. Now the pundits are saying "they'll taper in December". Well maybe or maybe not. If the Fed sees that the housing and mortgage markets will suffer due to market volatility, I think they will not only look at it but bury the idea of tapering off the buyback program. The media appears to be intent on putting words in the Fed's mouth with the purpose of getting them to commit to a time frame. Why? Because they believe that the Fed will in the same time frame raise interest rates which the Smart Money wants. Time will tell how this all pans out but in the meantime, we have another day with Bernanke....
On Friday, June 7th I had the opportunity to interview Mr. Sal Spedele regarding ObamaCare. Sal is a 20 year veteran of the Insurance Industry and we spoke at length regarding the ramifications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka ObamaCare. If you are at all concerned about the future of Health Insurance in the United States, then you need to listen to this interview and act on it. Sal and his team is offering complimentary advisory services to inform you of your rights and ramifications of this Act. As an update on this issue, last week the White House extended the employer's mandate to 2015 versus 2014 and currently the house will vote on a similar measure for individuals. The question is can you trust the folks in DC to implement anything? To download the article on ObamaCare, go to: https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s978a806ae2e41569 To view my discussion with Sal: http://youtu.be/sR_ine0b5Ro
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/sdf8f77f6e2c4347a
My discussion with John can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday August crude dropped to a low of 105.11 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $103 a barrel and resistance at 108. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the August time frame.
- Asian Contagion - happening now
Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10598425/when-perception-becomes-reality
http://www.forexcrunch.com/good-jobs-report/
http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-taper-caper/
http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
As of this writing 5:40 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Up at 82.915, the Sept US Dollar is up 75 ticks and is trading at 82.915.
Energies – August Oil is down at 106.05.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is up 3 ticks and is trading at 135.14.
Indices – The September S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1676.00 and is up 2 ticks.
Gold – The August gold contract is trading up at 1279.40 and is up 19 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is up+ and oil is down- which is normal and the 30 year bond is trading higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are up and the US dollar is trading higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia closed mixed with the half the exchanges closing lower and the other half higher. As of this writing Europe is trading higher with the exception of the German DAX which is fractionally lower.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. Unemployment Claims are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
2. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
3. Ben Bernanke speaks at 10 AM EST. This is major.
4. CB Conference Board is out at 10 AM EST. This is not major.
5. Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This will move the Nat Gas market.
Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside as Gold was lower, the USD was higher and Europe was trading lower. However the market migrated from positive to negative territory all day with the net result being that the Dow gained 19 points. Today we are not dealing with a correlated market and our bias is neutral as we think the market could be driven in any direction today. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside as the markets were correlated as such. Housing Starts, Permits came in much lower than expected but the big news of the day was of course Ben Bernanke testifying before Congress. He did say "tapering is not on a preset path" which in my mind is nothing more than what he's been saying since December, 2012. Now the pundits are saying "they'll taper in December". Well maybe or maybe not. If the Fed sees that the housing and mortgage markets will suffer due to market volatility, I think they will not only look at it but bury the idea of tapering off the buyback program. The media appears to be intent on putting words in the Fed's mouth with the purpose of getting them to commit to a time frame. Why? Because they believe that the Fed will in the same time frame raise interest rates which the Smart Money wants. Time will tell how this all pans out but in the meantime, we have another day with Bernanke....
On Friday, June 7th I had the opportunity to interview Mr. Sal Spedele regarding ObamaCare. Sal is a 20 year veteran of the Insurance Industry and we spoke at length regarding the ramifications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka ObamaCare. If you are at all concerned about the future of Health Insurance in the United States, then you need to listen to this interview and act on it. Sal and his team is offering complimentary advisory services to inform you of your rights and ramifications of this Act. As an update on this issue, last week the White House extended the employer's mandate to 2015 versus 2014 and currently the house will vote on a similar measure for individuals. The question is can you trust the folks in DC to implement anything? To download the article on ObamaCare, go to: https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s978a806ae2e41569 To view my discussion with Sal: http://youtu.be/sR_ine0b5Ro
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/sdf8f77f6e2c4347a
My discussion with John can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday August crude dropped to a low of 105.11 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $103 a barrel and resistance at 108. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the August time frame.
- Asian Contagion - happening now
Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10598425/when-perception-becomes-reality
http://www.forexcrunch.com/good-jobs-report/
http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-taper-caper/
http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Pre-Market Global Review - 7/17/13 - Taper Caper Rears Its Head...again
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 5:00 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Up at 82.720, the Sept US Dollar is up 93 ticks and is trading at 82.720.
Energies – August Oil is down at 104.86.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is down 3 ticks and is trading at 134.28.
Indices – The September S&P 500 emini ES contract is down at 1668.75 and is down 9 ticks.
Gold – The August gold contract is trading down at 1285.00 and is down 54 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is up+ and oil is down- which is normal but the 30 year bond is trading lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are down and the US dollar is trading higher which is correlated. Gold is trading lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia closed mixed with the half the exchanges closing lower and the other half higher. As of this writing all of Europe is trading lower.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. Building Permits are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
2. Housing Starts are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
3. Ben Bernanke speaks at 10 AM EST. This is major.
4. Crude Oil Inventories are out at 10:30 AM EST This will move the oil markets.
5. FOMC Member Raskin speaks at 12:30 PM EST. This is major.
6. Fed Beige Book is out at 2 PM EST. This could impact afternoon trading.
Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside as Gold was lower and Europe was trading lower. The net result? The Dow Closed 32 points lower. Today we are not dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the downside. Why? The USD is higher and the Bonds are down, Gold is trading lower and Europe is all trading down. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside as the markets as such. CPI came in higher which is not good for consumers and spending as it means that we consumers are paying more for goods and services. The NAHB came in better than expected but I suspect the CPI number put a damper on the markets. Then came 2:15 PM and after a nice day whereby FOMC Member Tarullo said nothing, FOMC Member Esther George decided to state that she thinks the Fed should taper sooner as opposed to later. That sealed it for the markets as the Dow and other indices closed lower. Today we have Ben Bernanke speaking to Congress for the next two days (Wednesday & Thursday). Of course, we have no idea what he's going to say but obviously each time one of these members speak it becomes confusing as they each have their own opinion and aren't afraid to voice it. My train of thought says they need to borrow a page from Corporate America and start singing out of the same hymn book, so to speak....
On Friday, June 7th I had the opportunity to interview Mr. Sal Spedele regarding ObamaCare. Sal is a 20 year veteran of the Insurance Industry and we spoke at length regarding the ramifications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka ObamaCare. If you are at all concerned about the future of Health Insurance in the United States, then you need to listen to this interview and act on it. Sal and his team is offering complimentary advisory services to inform you of your rights and ramifications of this Act. As an update on this issue, last week the White House extended the employer's mandate to 2015 versus 2014 and currently the house will vote on a similar measure for individuals. The question is can you trust the folks in DC to implement anything? To download the article on ObamaCare, go to: https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s978a806ae2e41569
To view my discussion with Sal: http://youtu.be/sR_ine0b5Ro
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the downside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/sdf8f77f6e2c4347a
My discussion with John can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday August crude dropped to a low of 105.66 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $103 a barrel and resistance at 108. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the August time frame.
- Asian Contagion - happening now
Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10:30 AM when the inventory numbers are released and the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10598425/when-perception-becomes-reality
http://www.forexcrunch.com/good-jobs-report/
http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-taper-caper/
http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
As of this writing 5:00 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Up at 82.720, the Sept US Dollar is up 93 ticks and is trading at 82.720.
Energies – August Oil is down at 104.86.
Financials – The September 30 year bond is down 3 ticks and is trading at 134.28.
Indices – The September S&P 500 emini ES contract is down at 1668.75 and is down 9 ticks.
Gold – The August gold contract is trading down at 1285.00 and is down 54 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is up+ and oil is down- which is normal but the 30 year bond is trading lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are down and the US dollar is trading higher which is correlated. Gold is trading lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia closed mixed with the half the exchanges closing lower and the other half higher. As of this writing all of Europe is trading lower.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following
1. Building Permits are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
2. Housing Starts are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
3. Ben Bernanke speaks at 10 AM EST. This is major.
4. Crude Oil Inventories are out at 10:30 AM EST This will move the oil markets.
5. FOMC Member Raskin speaks at 12:30 PM EST. This is major.
6. Fed Beige Book is out at 2 PM EST. This could impact afternoon trading.
Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside as Gold was lower and Europe was trading lower. The net result? The Dow Closed 32 points lower. Today we are not dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the downside. Why? The USD is higher and the Bonds are down, Gold is trading lower and Europe is all trading down. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside as the markets as such. CPI came in higher which is not good for consumers and spending as it means that we consumers are paying more for goods and services. The NAHB came in better than expected but I suspect the CPI number put a damper on the markets. Then came 2:15 PM and after a nice day whereby FOMC Member Tarullo said nothing, FOMC Member Esther George decided to state that she thinks the Fed should taper sooner as opposed to later. That sealed it for the markets as the Dow and other indices closed lower. Today we have Ben Bernanke speaking to Congress for the next two days (Wednesday & Thursday). Of course, we have no idea what he's going to say but obviously each time one of these members speak it becomes confusing as they each have their own opinion and aren't afraid to voice it. My train of thought says they need to borrow a page from Corporate America and start singing out of the same hymn book, so to speak....
On Friday, June 7th I had the opportunity to interview Mr. Sal Spedele regarding ObamaCare. Sal is a 20 year veteran of the Insurance Industry and we spoke at length regarding the ramifications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act aka ObamaCare. If you are at all concerned about the future of Health Insurance in the United States, then you need to listen to this interview and act on it. Sal and his team is offering complimentary advisory services to inform you of your rights and ramifications of this Act. As an update on this issue, last week the White House extended the employer's mandate to 2015 versus 2014 and currently the house will vote on a similar measure for individuals. The question is can you trust the folks in DC to implement anything? To download the article on ObamaCare, go to: https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/s978a806ae2e41569
To view my discussion with Sal: http://youtu.be/sR_ine0b5Ro
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the downside. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to:
https://markettealeaves.sharefile.com/d/sdf8f77f6e2c4347a
My discussion with John can be viewed at: http://youtu.be/uVwHpMq1604
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday August crude dropped to a low of 105.66 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $103 a barrel and resistance at 108. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling in the August time frame.
- Asian Contagion - happening now
Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10:30 AM when the inventory numbers are released and the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/10598425/when-perception-becomes-reality
http://www.forexcrunch.com/good-jobs-report/
http://www.forexcrunch.com/the-taper-caper/
http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
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