Pre-Market Global Review - 1/7/14 - PMI Disappoints

Good Morning Traders,
 
As of this writing 5:30 AM EST, here’s what we see:
 
US Dollar – Up at 80.925, the US Dollar is up 119 ticks and is trading at 80.925.                           Energies – February Oil is up at 93.80.       
Financials – The March 30 year bond is down 2 ticks and trading at 128.31.      
Indices – The March S&P 500 emini ES contract is up 24 ticks and trading at 1826.75. 
Gold – The February gold contract is trading down at 1236.90 and is down 10 ticks from its close.   
           
 
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is up+ and oil is up+ which is not normal but the 30 year bond is trading lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa.  The indices are higher and the US dollar is trading up which is not correlated.  Gold is trading lower which is  correlated with the US dollar trading up.   I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down.   I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong.  As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. 
               
Asia traded mainly lower, with the exception of the Shanghai and Hang Seng exchanges which closed higher.  As of this writing all of Europe is trading higher.   
 
  Possible challenges to traders today is the following:
                                                
1.  Trade Balance is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.          
2.  IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is out at 10 AM EST.  This is not major.        
3.  Lack of economic news.

      Currencies       
Yesterday the Swiss Franc made it's move at around 10:30 AM EST after the economic news was released.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets.  The USD fell at around that time and the Swiss Franc rose.  This was a long opportunity on the Swiss Franc.  The key to capitalizing on these trades is to watch the USD movement.  The USD rise only lent confirmation to the move.  As a trader you could have netted 20 ticks on this trade.   As many of you know this past week was especially challenging for us because there was an issue with Ninja Trader, version 7, release 18.  John Karnas, the CEO of Trend Following Traders personally spent hours with me on a Sunday to resolve this issue.  I think highly of their charts and would recommend them.  If you wish additional details, feel free to contact me.  We finally have charts that we can show.  
 
 
 Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades

Swiss Franc - 3/14 - 1/6/14

USD - 3/14 - 1/6/14

 
Bias


Yesterday we said our bias was neutral as the market wasn't giving any clear direction.  As expected the market fell and the Dow dropped 45 points.  The other indices lost ground as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market however our bias is to the upside.  Why?  Europe is trading higher, the US futures are higher and the Bonds are trading trading lower.    Could this change?  Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
  
Yesterday when we first viewed the markets we could sense that something was wrong because although the index futures were pointed up. the Bonds were trading higher and Gold was dropping.  Additionally there was no correlation between the USD and Bonds.  In an upward market the opposite would be true: Bonds would be lower and Gold higher.  This was not the case so we gave a neutral bias which means the markets could go in any direction.  In our video, we also emphasized the economic reports and a major one: the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI did not meet expectation coming in at 53.0 versus 54.6 expected.  Any number above 50 represents growth and expansion so whereas the number didn't meet expectation; it doesn't suggest a slowdown.  The markets however aren't that forgiving as we're in a new year now and the Santa Claus rally is over.  So it would appear as though the markets will be viewing these reports as they should.


Each day in this newsletter we provide viewers a snapshot of the Swiss Franc versus the US dollar as a way and means of capitalizing on the inverse relationship between these two assets.  Futures Magazine recognized this correlation as well.  So much so that they printed a story on it in their December issue.  That story can be viewed at:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/11/25/correlated-opportunities-in-the-swiss-franc?ref=hp


Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation.  Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did  as I'm Author of that article.  I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at:


http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/01/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation

As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I've produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it.  It can be viewed at:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/16/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation?ref=hp


 
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities.   While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report.  A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance.  Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares.  This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures.  There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
 
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is to the upside.  Could this change?  Of course.  In a volatile market anything can happen.  We'll have to monitor and see.
  


As I write this the crude markets are trading higher and the US Dollar is higher.  This is not normal.  Think of it this way.  If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice-versa.  Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding.  The barometer of which is the equities or stock market.  If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday February crude dropped to a low of 93.20 a barrel and held.  We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level.   It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $92.87 a barrel and resistance at $94.96.  This could change.  All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel.  We'll have to monitor and see.  Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. 

Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - Senate passes budget deal, now it's up to Obama to sign.  I was wondering why Obama is reluctant to sign the budget deal until it was revealed that this budget doesn't include any extension of Unemployment Benefits.  This surprises me as how could Patty Murray, a Democrat from Washington State allow this?  It also tells me that our elected morons don't read the bills that they vote on.  Obama seeks to augment this by pushing thru a bill that will extend UI benefits and that bill should be voted on today or tomorrow.  As an update to this, the Senate has postponed the vote on this bill until today.

Crude oil is trading higher and the US Dollar is advancing.  This is not normal.  Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes.  If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right.  If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction.  As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market.  This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial.  We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago.  High Frequency Trading is one of them.   I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.

Recently Published Articles:  
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/2278223/does-this-company-manufacture-junk




Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us.  Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow.  Sceeto does an excellent job at this.  To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate.  More on this in subsequent editions.
 






Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com  Interested in Market Correlation?  Want to learn more?  Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open.  As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.

Pre-Market Global Review - 1/6/14 - Auto Sales Lead the Way

Good Morning Traders,
 
As of this writing 5:40 AM EST, here’s what we see:
 
US Dollar – Down at 80.945, the US Dollar is down 10 ticks and is trading at 80.945.                          
Energies – February Oil is up at 94.50.       
Financials – The March 30 year bond is up 7 ticks and trading at 128.24.      
Indices – The March S&P 500 emini ES contract is up 5 ticks and trading at 1826.75. 
Gold – The February gold contract is trading down at 1236.70 and is down 19 ticks from its close.   
           
 
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is down- and oil is up+ which is  normal but the 30 year bond is trading higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa.  The indices are higher and the US dollar is trading down which is correlated.  Gold is trading lower which is  not correlated with the US dollar trading down.   I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down.   I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong.  As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. 
               
All of Asia traded lower, with some exchanges closing down by triple digits.  As of this writing Europe is trading mixed.  London and Paris are trading lower and the German DAX is trading higher. 
 
  Possible challenges to traders today is the following:
                                                
1.  Final Services PMI is out at 9 AM EST. This is not major.        
2.  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.      
3.  Factory Orders m/m is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.
4.  Fed Chairman Nomination Vote starts at 5:30 PM EST.  This is after-market.


      Currencies       
On Friday the Swiss Franc made it's move at around 9:30 AM EST with no major economic reports to speak of.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets.  The USD rose at around that time and the Swiss Franc fell.  This was a shorting opportunity on the Swiss Franc.  The key to capitalizing on these trades is to watch the USD movement.  The USD rise only lent confirmation to the move.  As a trader you could have netted 20 ticks on this trade.   As many of you know this past week was especially challenging for us because there was an issue with Ninja Trader, version 7, release 18.  John Karnas, the CEO of Trend Following Traders personally spent hours with me on a Sunday to resolve this issue.  I think highly of their charts and would recommend them.  If you wish additional details, feel free to contact me.  We finally have charts that we can show.  
 
 
 Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades

Swiss Franc - 3/14 - 1/3/14

USD - 3/14 - 1/3/14

 
Bias


On Friday we said our bias was to the upside as the Bonds were trading lower, Gold was trading higher and the futures pointed upward (as of 6 AM EST).  As expected the markets rose at the open and  Dow closed 29 points higher.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is neutral.  At the present time the market isn't giving any clear direction.    Could this change?  Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
 
On Friday at the time we published Market Tea Leaves we had no idea that FOMC members would be speaking.  Apparently this was a last minute surprise. As expected Ben Bernanke gave what is in essence a farewell speech defending his tenure as the Fed Chief.  What moved the market in my opinion was Auto Sales.  Whereas the number came in a bit short of expectations (15.4 mill vs 16.0 mill) it was enough to propel the markets.  Chrysler reported a 6% increase in sales and last week it was announced that Fiat will be purchasing all outstanding Chrysler stock.  This unto itself was a wise move as why dilute the shares of Fiat to own Chrysler?  The only other recourse would be to spin off Chrysler as an IPO.  In the luxury brand market German automaker Audi reported its fourth consecutive year of growth with a 13.5% increase from year ago sales in the US market.   


Each day in this newsletter we provide viewers a snapshot of the Swiss Franc versus the US dollar as a way and means of capitalizing on the inverse relationship between these two assets.  Futures Magazine recognized this correlation as well.  So much so that they printed a story on it in their December issue.  That story can be viewed at:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/11/25/correlated-opportunities-in-the-swiss-franc?ref=hp


Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation.  Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did  as I'm Author of that article.  I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at:


http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/01/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation

As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I've produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it.  It can be viewed at:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/16/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation?ref=hp


 
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities.   While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report.  A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance.  Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares.  This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures.  There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
 
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral.  Could this change?  Of course.  In a volatile market anything can happen.  We'll have to monitor and see.
  


As I write this the crude markets are trading higher and the US Dollar is lower.  This is normal.  Think of it this way.  If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice-versa.  Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding.  The barometer of which is the equities or stock market.  If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. On Friday February crude dropped to a low of 93.86 a barrel and held.  We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level.   It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $92.64 a barrel and resistance at $96.40.  This could change.  All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel.  We'll have to monitor and see.  Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. 

Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - Senate passes budget deal, now it's up to Obama to sign.  I was wondering why Obama is reluctant to sign the budget deal until it was revealed that this budget doesn't include any extension of Unemployment Benefits.  This surprises me as how could Patty Murray, a Democrat from Washington State allow this?  It also tells me that our elected morons don't read the bills that they vote on.  Obama seeks to augment this by pushing thru a bill that will extend UI benefits and that bill should be voted on today or tomorrow.

Crude oil is trading higher and the US Dollar is declining.  This is normal.  Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes.  If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right.  If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction.  As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market.  This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial.  We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago.  High Frequency Trading is one of them.   I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.

Recently Published Articles:  
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/2278223/does-this-company-manufacture-junk




Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us.  Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow.  Sceeto does an excellent job at this.  To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate.  More on this in subsequent editions.
 






Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com  Interested in Market Correlation?  Want to learn more?  Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open.  As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.

Pre-Market Global Review - 1/3/14 - 2014 Starts with a Sell-Off

Good Morning Traders,
 
As of this writing 6:00 AM EST, here’s what we see:
 
US Dollar – Down at 80.730, the US Dollar is down 58 ticks and is trading at 80.730.                          Energies – February Oil is down at 95.42.       
Financials – The March 30 year bond is down 2 ticks and trading at 128.18.      
Indices – The March S&P 500 emini ES contract is up 6 ticks and trading at 1828.00. 
Gold – The February gold contract is trading up at 1232.70 and is up 75 ticks from its close.   
           
 
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is down- and oil is down- which is not normal but the 30 year bond is trading lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa.  The indices are higher and the US dollar is trading down which is correlated.  Gold is trading higher which is  correlated with the US dollar trading down.   I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down.   I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong.  As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. 
               
All of Asia traded lower, please note that the Japanese Nikkei was closed for a bank holiday.  As of this writing Europe is trading higher. 
 
  Possible challenges to traders today is the following:
                                                
1.  Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. This could move the Nat Gas market.       2.  Crude Oil Inventories is out at 11 AM EST.  This is could move the crude oil market.    
3.  Auto Sales - all day.



      Currencies       
Yesterday the Swiss Franc made it's move at around 10 AM EST after the economic reports were released.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets.  The USD fell at around that time and the Swiss Franc rose.  This was a long opportunity on the Swiss Franc.  The key to capitalizing on these trades is to watch the USD movement.  The USD rise only lent confirmation to the move.  As a trader you could have netted 20 ticks on this trade.  
Please note: the charts below are from Tuesday, 12/31/13.  Unfortunately we are experiencing technical difficulties with Ninja Trader, version 7, Release 18.  When this issue is resolved we will provide charts as usual. 
 
 
 Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades

Swiss Franc - 3/14 - 12/31/13

USD - 3/14 - 12/31/13

 
Bias


Yesterday we said our bias was to the upside as the Bonds were trading lower, Gold was trading higher and the futures pointed upward (as of 5 AM EST).  The markets however had other ideas.  The Dow closed 136 points lower and the other indices lost ground as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market however our bias is to the upside.    Could this change?  Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
 
The markets wasted no time yesterday deciding on a direction and unfortunately the direction was down.  It didn't seem to matter that we had good economic reports, the markets stayed in negative territory all session long.  Now what do we think is happening?  Early January of any given is a volatile time for trading as folks who experienced a gain in 2013, will sell in 2014 to put cash in their pockets and don't have to be concerned about taxes on gains until next year when it has to be reported to the IRS.  This is typically called the January Effect.  We haven't really experienced a January Effect for the last few years as it typically happens when markets have reached or exceeded an all time high; such as what happened in 2013.  Will this situation continue?  Only time will tell......

Each day in this newsletter we provide viewers a snapshot of the Swiss Franc versus the US dollar as a way and means of capitalizing on the inverse relationship between these two assets.  Futures Magazine recognized this correlation as well.  So much so that they printed a story on it in their December issue.  That story can be viewed at:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/11/25/correlated-opportunities-in-the-swiss-franc?ref=hp


Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation.  Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did  as I'm Author of that article.  I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at:


http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/01/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation

As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I've produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it.  It can be viewed at:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/16/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation?ref=hp


 
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities.   While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report.  A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance.  Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares.  This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures.  There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
 
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral.  Could this change?  Of course.  In a volatile market anything can happen.  We'll have to monitor and see.
  


As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is lower.  This is not normal.  Think of it this way.  If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice-versa.  Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding.  The barometer of which is the equities or stock market.  If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday February crude dropped to a low of 95.42 a barrel and held.  We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level.   It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $92.95 a barrel and resistance at $99.90.  This could change.  All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel.  We'll have to monitor and see.  Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. 

Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - Senate passes budget deal, now it's up to Obama to sign.

Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is declining.  This is not normal.  Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes.  If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right.  If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 11 AM when the inventory numbers are released and the markets give us better direction.  As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market.  This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial.  We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago.  High Frequency Trading is one of them.   I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.

Recently Published Articles:  
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/12650453/are-the-markets-rewarding-poor-performance


http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/164874-trader-tips-the-case-for-fundamental-analysis/



Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us.  Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow.  Sceeto does an excellent job at this.  To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate.  More on this in subsequent editions.
 






Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com  Interested in Market Correlation?  Want to learn more?  Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open.  As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.

Pre-Market Global Review - 1/2/14 - TWENTY FOURTEEN

Good Morning Traders,
 
As of this writing 5:00 AM EST, here’s what we see:
 
US Dollar –Up at 80.189, the US Dollar is up 67 ticks and is trading at 80.189.                         
Energies – February Oil is up at 98.73.       
Financials – The March 30 year bond is down 15 ticks and trading at 128.10.      
Indices – The March S&P 500 emini ES contract is up 25 ticks and trading at 1841.00. 
Gold – The February gold contract is trading up at 1219.80 and is up 175 ticks from its close.   
           
 
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is up+ and oil is up+ which is not normal but the 30 year bond is trading lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa.  The indices are higher and the US dollar is trading up which is not correlated.  Gold is trading higher which is  not correlated with the US dollar trading up.   I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down.   I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong.  As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. 
               
Asia traded mainly mixed with half the exchanges trading higher and the other half lower.  As of this writing Europe is trading lower. 
 
  Possible challenges to traders today is the following:
                                                
1.  Unemployment Claims are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.      
2.  Final Manufacturing PMI is out at 9 AM EST.  This is major.  
3.  ISM Manufacturing PMI is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.
4.  Construction Spending m/m is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.
5.  ISM Manufacturing Prices is out at 10 AM EST.  This is not major.                                 
   
      Currencies       
On Tuesday the Swiss Franc made it's move at around 10:20 AM EST after the Conference Board Consumer Confidence numbers were released.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets.  The USD fell at around that time and the Swiss Franc rose.  This was a long opportunity on the Swiss Franc.  The key to capitalizing on these trades is to watch the USD movement.  The USD rise only lent confirmation to the move.  As a trader you could have netted 20-30 ticks on this trade.  

Please note: the charts below are from Monday, 12/30/13.  Unfortunately we are experiencing technical difficulties with Ninja Trader, version 7, Release 18.  When this issue is resolved we will provide charts as usual. 
 
 
 Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades

Swiss Franc - 3/14 - 12/30/13

USD - 3/14 - 12/30/14

 
Bias


On Tuesday we said our bias was neutral as the futures didn't give any sign as to direction.  A neutral bias means the markets could go in any direction.  The Dow closed 73 points higher and the other indices gained ground as well.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market however our bias is to the upside.  Why?  The Bonds are trading lower, Gold is trading higher and the index futures are pointing up.    Could this change?  Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
 
The Holiday Season is winding down to a close, so now the big question is what kind of year will 2014 be?  Some analysts are predicting a stellar 2014 while others are waiting for a market drop.  My take is we'll wait for the markets to show us its hand before making any rash decisions.  The thing about day trading is that each day has the potential to be different from the day before.  Will there be a January Effect?  Will we see a sell-off as some pundits are predicting?  Only time will tell but as we said on Tuesday my take is Earnings Season will light the way.  Earnings Season traditionally begins with Alcoa reporting earnings and recently their stock has hit a 52 week high so currently it shows a bullish stance.  Will this continue?  Only time will tell...

Each day in this newsletter we provide viewers a snapshot of the Swiss Franc versus the US dollar as a way and means of capitalizing on the inverse relationship between these two assets.  Futures Magazine recognized this correlation as well.  So much so that they printed a story on it in their December issue.  That story can be viewed at:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/11/25/correlated-opportunities-in-the-swiss-franc?ref=hp


Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation.  Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did  as I'm Author of that article.  I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at:


http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/01/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation

As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I've produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it.  It can be viewed at:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/16/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation?ref=hp


 
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities.   While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report.  A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance.  Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares.  This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures.  There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
 
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral.  Could this change?  Of course.  In a volatile market anything can happen.  We'll have to monitor and see.
  


As I write this the crude markets are trading higher and the US Dollar is higher.  This is not normal.  Think of it this way.  If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice-versa.  Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding.  The barometer of which is the equities or stock market.  If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. On Tuesday January crude dropped to a low of 98.15 a barrel and held.  We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level.   It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $97.40 a barrel and resistance at $99.90 This could change.  All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel.  We'll have to monitor and see.  Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. 

Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - Senate passes budget deal, now it's up to Obama to sign.

Crude oil is trading higher and the US Dollar is advancing.  This is not normal.  Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes.  If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right.  If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction.  As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market.  This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial.  We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago.  High Frequency Trading is one of them.   I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.

Recently Published Articles:  
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/12650453/are-the-markets-rewarding-poor-performance


http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/164874-trader-tips-the-case-for-fundamental-analysis/



Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us.  Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow.  Sceeto does an excellent job at this.  To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate.  More on this in subsequent editions.
 






Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com  Interested in Market Correlation?  Want to learn more?  Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open.  As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.

Pre-Market Global Review - 12/31/13 - Happy New Year

Good Morning Traders,
 
As of this writing 5:05 AM EST, here’s what we see:
 
US Dollar –Up at 80.235, the US Dollar is up 113 ticks and is trading at 80.235.                       
Energies – February Oil is down at 98.95.       
Financials – The March 30 year bond is down 3 ticks and trading at 128.22.      
Indices – The March S&P 500 emini ES contract is up 4 ticks and trading at 1835.75. 
Gold – The February gold contract is trading down at 1200.70 and is down 31 ticks from its close.   
           
 
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market.  The dollar is up+ and oil is down- which is  normal but the 30 year bond is trading lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa.  The indices are higher and the US dollar is trading up which is not correlated.  Gold is trading lower which is  correlated with the US dollar trading up.   I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down.   I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong.  As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. 
               
Asia traded mainly higher with 4 of the 6 exchanges trading higher.  As of this writing Europe is trading lower. 
 
  Possible challenges to traders today is the following:
                                                
1.  S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is out at 9 AM EST. This is major.    
2.  Chicago PMI is out at 9:45 AM EST.  This is major.
3.  CB Consumer Confidence is out at 10 AM EST.  This is major.                                 
   
      Currencies       
Yesterday the Swiss Franc made it's move at around 10:20 AM EST after the Pending Home Sales numbers were released.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets.  The USD fell at around that time and the Swiss Franc rose.  This was a long opportunity on the Swiss Franc.  The key to capitalizing on these trades is to watch the USD movement.  The USD rise only lent confirmation to the move.  As a trader you could have netted 20-30 ticks on this trade.  Notice that even without a tsunami of economic reports, the rules of market correlation still hold true.
 
 
 Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades

Swiss Franc - 3/14 - 12/30/13

USD - 3/14 - 12/30/14

 
Bias


Yesterday we said our bias was neutral as the futures didn't give any sign as to direction.  A neutral bias means the markets could go in any direction.  Today our bias is neutral.  The Dow closed 26 points higher but the indices gained no ground.   Could this change?  Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
 
It would appear as though the market wants to keep its upward momentum, at least for the present time.  The market wants to hang on to its gains but the question is will this upward bias and momentum continue into 2014?  Many pundits and analysts are predicting a correction.  They could be right as this has happened many times before.  My take is that Earnings Season will tell the tale.  We'll know in January as to the effects on consumer spending as Retail Sales will inform as to what kind of holiday season we had.  We used to have the January Effect whereby a sell off was expected but over the last couple of years this has not been the case.  Time will tell if this is the case but in the meantime Happy New Year!!!!

Each day in this newsletter we provide viewers a snapshot of the Swiss Franc versus the US dollar as a way and means of capitalizing on the inverse relationship between these two assets.  Futures Magazine recognized this correlation as well.  So much so that they printed a story on it in their December issue.  That story can be viewed at:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/11/25/correlated-opportunities-in-the-swiss-franc?ref=hp


Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation.  Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did  as I'm Author of that article.  I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at:


http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/01/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation

As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I've produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it.  It can be viewed at:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/16/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation?ref=hp


 
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities.   While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report.  A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance.  Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares.  This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures.  There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
 
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral.  Could this change?  Of course.  In a volatile market anything can happen.  We'll have to monitor and see.
  


As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is higher.  This is normal.  Think of it this way.  If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice-versa.  Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding.  The barometer of which is the equities or stock market.  If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. On Friday January crude dropped to a low of 99.13 a barrel and held.  We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level.   It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $99 a barrel and resistance at $101  This could change.  All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel.  We'll have to monitor and see.  Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump. 

Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - Senate passes budget deal, now it's up to Obama to sign.

Crude oil is trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing.  This is normal.  Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes.  If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right.  If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction.  As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market.  This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial.  We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago.  High Frequency Trading is one of them.   I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.

Recently Published Articles:  
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/12650453/are-the-markets-rewarding-poor-performance


http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/164874-trader-tips-the-case-for-fundamental-analysis/



Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us.  Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow.  Sceeto does an excellent job at this.  To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate.  More on this in subsequent editions.
 






Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com  Interested in Market Correlation?  Want to learn more?  Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open.  As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.