Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 4:45 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Up at 80.365, the Dec US Dollar is up 54 ticks and is trading at 80.365.
Energies – November Oil is down at 102.14.
Financials – The December 30 year bond is down 3 ticks and is trading at 132.04.
Indices – The December S&P 500 emini ES contract is up at 1704.75 and is up 2 ticks.
Gold – The December gold contract is trading down at 1264.60 and is down 120 ticks from its close.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is up+ and oil is down- which is normal but the 30 year bond is trading lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are up and the US dollar is trading higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
Asia closed mainly higher with the exception of the Singapore and Shanghai exchanges which closer fractionally lower. As of this writing all of Europe is trading higher.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following:
1. Empire State Manufacturing Index is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
2. FOMC Member Dudley Speaks at 10 AM EST. This is major.
3. Lack of economic news.
Currencies
On Friday the Swiss Franc made it's move at around 8:50 AM EST This was a shorting opportunity as the USD hit a low at around that time and proceeded to rise, the Swiss Franc dropped at the around the same time. The key to capitalizing on these trades is to watch the USD movement. The USD dropping only lent confirmation to the move. As a trader you could have netted 20-30 ticks on this trade. And you thought markets weren't correlated? And this is with a government shutdown which means these rules will work regardless of what else is going on....
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| Chart Courtesy of Trend Following Trades |
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| USD 12/13 - 10/14/13 |
Bias
Yesterday we said our bias was to the downside as the markets weren't correlated. However the markets choose to advance based upon rumors of an impending debt ceiling deal. The Dow rose by 64 points and the other indices rose as well. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is neutral. A neutral bias means the markets could go in any direction. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Yesterday the markets opened much lower to the tune of 100 points and remained there for the rest of the morning. Then it was announced that the White House would be conducting a 3 PM meeting. That meeting was postponed because Democrat Harry Reid and Republican Mitch McConnell were having a "good talk". So the markets are being moved by rumors. Haven't these folks learned anything in 4 years? Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell will always have "good talks", they're politicians, aren't they? Politicians can always have good talks but it doesn't mean that anything constructive will come out of it. It requires a third party to mediate and negotiate. That didn't happen, so now the markets will be moved by the latest rumor coming out of DC. Obama should know this by now. In January it took Vice-President Biden to mediate a deal to avoid the Fiscal Cliff and that bought us 10 months time. That time is now done and hence we have a debt ceiling. The Democrats now want to discuss sequester cuts due to become effective in 2014 but I have no doubt the GOP will shoot that down just as readily as the Democrats shot down the notion of defunding ObamaCare. So, hence we have impasse....
Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation. Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did as I'm Author of that article. I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at:
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/01/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation
As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I've produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it. It can be viewed at:
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/08/16/how-to-exploit-and-profit-from-market-correlation?ref=hp
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
In May, I spoke with John Karnas, CEO of Trend Following Trades. John has an interesting background as he was a trader for a number of years prior to buying Trend Following Trades. John is a believer in Trading Plans and has a very precise method of developing aspiring traders. To download the article I've written, go to: http://www.traderslog.com/john-karnas/
Please note the video is about a half hour in length and we plan on producing more in the near future. Also note that in the near future we will have other videos where we will interview various trading leaders.
As I write this the crude markets are trading lower and the US Dollar is advancing. This is normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday November crude dropped to a low of 101.08 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $101.56 a barrel and resistance at 103.09. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
Future Challenges:
- Budget Battle - ongoing.
- Debt Ceiling - ongoing.
Crude oil is trading higher and the US Dollar is declining. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 7 AM EST, 9 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Recently Published Articles:
http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/12650453/are-the-markets-rewarding-poor-performance
http://www.traderplanet.com/commentaries/view/164874-trader-tips-the-case-for-fundamental-analysis/
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com Interested in Market Correlation? Want to learn more? Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open. As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.
